The Mood in Munich

Michael Froman is president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Hallo from the Hotel Bayerischer Hof—base camp for the Munich Security Conference—where hundreds of heads of state, foreign ministers, military officers, intelligence officials, businesspeople, and journalists are gathered for the world’s preeminent conference on international security. The sky is filled with dark clouds, and a cold wind is blowing—an atmosphere not entirely unlike Europe’s geopolitical outlook. The proceedings got off to a rocky start yesterday when a terrorist attack on the outskirts of the security perimeter injured more than twenty people. Needless to say, security is tight. 
For the third year in a row, the war in Ukraine is the dominant topic of discussion. Following a European charm offensive by several Trump administration officials, Vice President JD Vance is here, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to arrive shortly. Both are expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 

There is an air of confusion about where exactly the Donald Trump administration stands on the question of the United States’ long-time role as Europe’s security guarantor, not to mention the trajectory of President Trump’s unilateral negotiations with Russia over Ukraine, whether having U.S. troops as part of a security arrangement is on or off the table, and the degree to which Europe can and should pick up the slack.

The Europeans are trying to figure out where they fit into the equation, whether they (or the Ukrainians) will be at the table for the negotiations, and whether Trump’s shock therapy will be enough to galvanize the EU’s defense industrial base and spur a new, realpolitik consensus on European security. 

China is here, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi having provided the rebuttal to Vance’s much-anticipated speech, which focused on threats to free speech in Europe. The Middle East is not front and center, even though Saudi Arabia is set to play host to Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first in-person peace negotiations. There is a sense of collective relief that Hamas seems to have reaffirmed that it will stick with the terms of the ceasefire and hostage release schedule for now.

The Munich Security Conference has been around since 1963, but it has evolved substantially in the last several years. The agenda has broadened to include climate change and food security, which are increasingly important drivers of instability.

Last night, in partnership with the Munich Security Conference, CFR hosted a “Dinner of Extinction,” where former chef and now agricultural tech investor, Sam Kass, curated a delicious meal consisting of ingredients that will be scarce or extinct as a result of climate change. It was a sobering feast, not least because global warming is wreaking havoc on European grape crops. When French wineries are buying land in the United Kingdom to grow champagne grapes, you know we are in dire straits.

Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a major issue at Munich, but the tone of the discussion has shifted. Last year, the focus was on trust and safety and the potential misuse of AI to manipulate elections. This year, it is on the opportunities that AI offers and the Europeans’ concern that their regulatory approach might leave them further and further behind at a time when they desperately need to boost productivity.

In many respects, the Munich Security Conference is unique among the major international gatherings in its wonkiness. Schmoozing is not the sole objective. There are fewer parties than serious policy discussions. And people come to learn, not just to talk. This morning, I sat next to C.Q. Brown, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to listen to an in-depth CFR panel on space governance, which covered the particulars of space debris management, next-generation anti-satellite weapons, and mega-constellations. 

More to come next Friday. By that time, we may well have a new security architecture in Europe and a new global trade system.